Latest developments in international economy
The global economy presents a pattern of resilient growth in the United States, moderate recovery in Europe, and differentiation in Asia. The core contradictions are concentrated on three main themes: fluctuating trade policies, geopolitical conflicts driving up oil prices, and the shift in central bank monetary policies.
Growth and policies of major economies
1. United States: Resilient Growth, Prominent Risks
Growth forecast: On February 25th, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) raised its forecast for the growth rate of U.S. GDP in 2026 to 2.6% (previously 2.4%), and to 2.1% in 2027; the unemployment rate remains near 4%.
Core risks:
High debt: Federal debt/GDP will reach 100.7% in 2026, and the budget deficit/GDP will rise back to 6.1%.
Tariff policy is inconsistent: After the Supreme Court ruled that the old tariffs were illegal, the government plans to impose a 10% surcharge on global goods under the new law, with tax rates for some goods potentially reaching 35%-50%.
Inflation and interest rate cuts: Market expectations are that the Federal Reserve will hold off in March and may cut interest rates by 1 percentage point within the year.
2. Eurozone: Inflation under control, moderate growth
ECB President Lagarde stated that inflation will stabilize at the **2%** target in the medium term, and exchange rate fluctuations will be closely monitored.
Industrial and consumption data from core countries such as Germany are relatively weak, but the market's expectation of easing policies supports risk assets.
3. Asia: distinct differentiation, flexible policies
China: Expected growth of 4.2% in 2026, contributing 26.6% to global growth; deepening economic and trade ties between China and Germany, with the German Chancellor leading a delegation of 30 enterprises to visit China, and bilateral trade volume reaching RMB 1.51 trillion in 2025.
India: The growth rate is expected to be 6.2%, contributing 17% to global growth.
Thailand: unexpectedly cut interest rates by 25bp to 1.00% in February (the lowest since 2020) to cope with deflation (CPI -0.3% in January) and declining exports.
Japan: Wage growth hits a 30-year high, expectations for the central bank's withdrawal from negative interest rates rise.
Global trade and geopolitical shocks
1. Changes in trade policies
The US tariff policy is inconsistent, leading to increased uncertainty in global supply chains, and putting pressure on foreign trade costs and inflation expectations.
The deepening of regional cooperation between China and Germany, China and South Korea, and other regions serves as a hedge against the risks of global trade frictions.
2. Geopolitics and energy market
The US-Iran negotiations broke down, and the US reinstated the highest level of sanctions. Brent crude oil surged by over 8%, breaking through $135 per barrel.
OPEC+ will convene on March 1st to consider increasing production by 137,000 barrels per day in April to stabilize oil prices.
Gold hit a record high, surpassing $5,200 per ounce, driven by both safe-haven sentiment and expectations of interest rate cuts.
Core Trends in Financial Markets
Stock market: US stocks, Nikkei 225, and Kospi have repeatedly hit record highs, led by AI and technology stocks.
Bond market: US Treasury yields decline, with the market pricing in the Federal Reserve's rate-cutting path.
Foreign exchange market: The US dollar weakened, and both the onshore and offshore Renminbi exchange rates surpassed 6.90, reaching a 34-month high.
Commodities: Crude oil and gold led the gains, while industrial metals saw divergent performance due to varying demand expectations.
Summary of Core Trends
Growth pattern: moderate in developed economies, and emerging markets in Asia remain the engine.
Policy mainline: The interest rate cut cycle of the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank is approaching, and some Asian central banks have already initiated easing measures.
Risk points: US trade protectionism, geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East, and global debt pressure are the three major uncertainties.
Asset main line: safe-haven assets (gold), technology growth, and high dividends are favored.
